Qualifying
Round Essay
Korean Minjok Leadership Academy
1300Sosa,
Anheung, Hoengseong,
Gangwon,
Republic of Korea 225-823
82-10-3124-7179
For the
International Public Policy Forum
On the
topic:
“Resolved: As a last resort, unilateral military action is justified to
minimize nuclear weapons proliferation”
Introduction
“The
unleashed power of the atom has changed everything save our modes of thinking,
and we thus drift toward unparalleled catastrophe.” – Albert Einstein -
The world
is facing today an unprecedented nuclear threat, with multiple rogue states
striving to develop nuclear weapons technology. North Korea already possesses nuclear
weapons along with rudimentary Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM)
technology—and Iran is not far behind (Yonhap). The international community is
up against an issue that may decide nothing less than the fate of our species.
In this context, the duty of the international community to prevent the
proliferation of nuclear weapons must be made a matter of highest priority: a global
mission to ensure weapons of mass destruction do not fall into the wrong hands.
However,
the approach the international community should implement to minimize nuclear
weapons proliferation is debatable. In this essay, we will show that
multilateral military intervention is the best course of action to minimize
nuclear weapons proliferation. Our argument is threefold. First, nuclear
weapons proliferation should be deterred for the sake of world peace. Next,
multilateral action is a far more preferable course of action than unilateral
intervention. Lastly, only after exhausting every possible measure would
multilateral intervention be justified—as a last resort.
1-1) Rogue States
Nuclear weapons in the wrong hands will
certainly create a volatile situation. In fact, the situation in the status quo
is heightening tensions to an unprecedented level, as North Korea and Iran
threaten world peace. North Korea has proven to be completely indifferent to
the international community’s many demands to abandon its nuclear program. It recently
restarted its Yongbyun reactor (Evans), tested its ICBM capability in 2013
despite condemnation by the international community (Elleman), and conducted
nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013. In 2010, North Korea shelled South Korea’s
YeonPyeong Island, killing 2 civilians (Kim). Prior to that, North Korea sank the
Cheonan, a South Korean naval vessel, killing 46 sailors on board (The
Guardian). Considering its history of ignoring international demands and violent
aggression, North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons poses a major threat.
Iran’s
nuclear program has been more opaque but no less dangerous. While Iran has officially
declared no intention of building a nuclear bomb, it is doing just that.
Considering its history of actions and threats, Iran too cannot be trusted. Former
president Ahmadinejad stated Israel “must be
wiped off the map (Fathi).” Moreover, Iran’s initial refusal to let the IAEA
(International Atomic Energy Agency) inspectors examine nuclear facilities in
2012 raised credible suspicions about Iran’s nuclear program (World Nuclear
News). While Iran continues to
insist its nuclear program is peaceful, the preponderance of evidence indicates
otherwise.
1-2) Terrorists
Rogue states and terrorists maintain
intimate relationships. Pakistan, for instance, has close connections with
terrorist organizations such as the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and the Lashkar-e-Taiba
(Hundley). Iran is widely known to have close ties with Hezbollah (Sciolino), which
aims to destroy Israel. Possession of nuclear weapons by terrorists would be an
extreme threat to the international community. We have already witnessed
previously unimaginable actions by terrorist groups. Including the 9/11 attacks
which resulted in over three thousand deaths. Similarly, a nuclear attack on just
one major city in the world would result in tens of thousands of civilian casualties,
as shown in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
At
least four terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda, have demonstrated clear desire
for a nuclear weapon device (Allison). These groups operate in, near or closely
with states that have a history of questionable nuclear activities. Terrorists
do not need to possess an actual nuclear weapon. They could easily create an
improvised device from highly enriched uranium which is available in nuclear
states such as Pakistan. To date, there have been 18 reported thefts or loss of
deployable nuclear material (Allison). Pakistani nuclear facilities were
attacked three times, including Sargodha, Kamra, and the Wah Cantonment
Ordnance Complex in an effort by terrorists to secure uranium (Kramer). In
2011, the Moldovan police broke up a smuggling ring trying to sell highly
enriched uranium: one smuggler was reported to have escaped with a kilogram of
the material (Kramer).
North Korea was suspected of aiding
Syria in building a nuclear reactor, which could have been easily modified to
initiate a nuclear weapons development program (Powell). What especially
concerns the international community is that Syria is widely known to have
close connections to terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda (Norton-Taylor).
Although it is difficult to prove North Korea has direct terrorist ties, its
efforts to spread nuclear technology to its “rogue allies” are of great concern
to the international community.
A
nuclear attack by terrorists could kill tens of thousands, create billions of
dollars in damage, and undermine the global economy. Former UN Secretary
General Kofi Annan stated that an act of nuclear terrorism “would thrust tens
of millions of people into dire poverty” and create “a second death toll
throughout the developing world” (Brill; Luongo). As horrific as the prospect
of nuclear terrorism is, the proliferation of nuclear weapons among rogue
states only increases the chance for such a crisis.
1-3) Nuclear Arms Race
Nuclear
weapons proliferation will likely cause a nuclear arms race. Countries like
Iran and North Korea are located in some of the most geopolitically volatile
regions of the world. Neighboring countries are extremely wary of the nuclear
programs in these rogue states and could very well develop their nuclear
programs for the sake of “self-defense.” We have already witnessed this type of
nuclear arms race in Pakistan and India. As soon as India began developing its nuclear
program, Pakistan jumped in and joined the race. As a result, Pakistan is estimated
to currently possess 90~120 operational nuclear warheads, surpassing India in
the total number of warheads (Hundley).
A
similar situation is taking shape in East Asia. Japan, a country with fully
developed nuclear energy technology, is strongly considering the creation of a
nuclear arsenal for national security purposes. The Japanese government feels the
country is disproportionately weak compared to the unconventional military
arsenal of North Korea (Herman). Tokyo governor Ishihara recently stated Japan
should expand its nuclear horizon to the military level (Fowler; Sakamaki). If
Japan develops nuclear weapons, it is very likely South Korea will do the same.
Currently, over two-thirds of South Korean citizens support greater
self-defense through nuclear weapons, because they feel the North Korean threat
is augmenting by the day (Kwon). That number is sure to grow if Japan
officially declares its own nuclear intentions. In regions where the danger of
war remains high, the start of a nuclear arms race could very well mean the beginning
of the end for human civilization.
2-1) Arbitrariness of Unilateral Action
The unilateral approach of the just war theory focuses on
situations where a nation believes attack is imminent. In such a case, military
action would be justified for national security: the safety of its citizens and
the state.
Just war theory is better supported when more nations agree to
it. Greater support implies the existence of a clear threat to world peace. The
invasion of Iraq was justified by the U.S. as an attack against a rogue nation
which had acquired weapons of mass destruction and supported terrorist groups
like Al-Qaeda. However, no such weapons or links to terrorist groups were ever
found in Iraq. The invasion itself was not approved by the UN and was a
violation of the UN Charter (Blix). Indeed, a unilateral approach is dangerous and
unjust because a nation can misuse its power for its own benefit—exactly what
the U.S. was criticized for. Without any preventative measure or global
agreement, unilateral action often proves irresponsible and devastating, which
is why it is inherently unjustified. In 2007, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich sought
to impeach Vice President Dick Cheney under House Resolution 333. Kucinich said
Cheney “purposely manipulated the intelligence process to deceive the citizens
of the United States” about the potential threat of Iraqi chemical, biological,
and nuclear weapons during the Saddam Hussein era and has “openly threatened
aggression” against Iran (Curry). The arbitrary exercise of unilateral power is
itself a threat to world peace—one that must be supplanted by the actions of a
supranational organization that has reached consensus on the international community’s
behalf.
2-2) Effectiveness of Multilateral Action
Possessing reasonable chance of success is another criterion for just war theory, for which multilateral action proves favorable on two levels.
Possessing reasonable chance of success is another criterion for just war theory, for which multilateral action proves favorable on two levels.
First, since an international organization like the United
Nations consists of many countries, its combined military capability is far
more powerful than that of any single nation. The UN Charter mandates all
nations provide military support if needed (UN Charter Chapter VII). The UN,
furthermore, is an international organization that acts on the behalf of the
international community. Whatever action UN decides to carry out, the decision
is an ‘international’ decision rather than a domestic one. Therefore, when the
UN organizes a military strike, it sends a very powerful message to the country
being attacked. Any country that may be attacked by an ‘international force’
will feel more pressure to engage in a diplomatic solution and act in
accordance with international norms and expectations.
Second, in the event military action is necessary, the UN will
not retreat from military operations as easily as a single nation might. The US
is steadily removing troops from Afghanistan even though the nation remains
highly unstable. In February 2013, President Obama cut the number of troops in
Afghanistan by half (Tapper). He did this because the majority of US citizens supported
withdrawal. However, this decision is being intensely debated because the
Taliban remain a powerful force. Military officers credibly fear Taliban forces
will reestablish control in rural regions absent a US military presence (The Economist).
The UN, in its fight against nuclear proliferation, would not be vulnerable to
public opinion. The UN Peacekeeping goal is “not only
to maintain peace and security, but also to facilitate the political process,
protect civilians, assist in the
disarmament, demobilization and
reintegration of former combatants; support the
organization of elections, protect and promote human rights and assist in
restoring the rule of law
(UN).”Until it becomes clear that the nuclear
problem and other surrounding complications have been rooted out, the UN or
multilateral effort it approves will continue its military campaign.
2-3) Backlashes of Unilateral Action
Retaliation is a possible consequence that must be considered
in any military action. Considering the strength of superpower military forces,
a multilateral effort will bring swift end to any military conflict which
arises. But direct or indirect retaliation by the nation attacked and/or its supporting
organizations will be a plausible reaction to unilateral action. Hezbollah is a
widely known terrorist group in Lebanon supported by Iran in its resistance to
Israel. This has been evidenced by Iranian officials, an attitude which has not
altered despite Rouhani’s position as president (Hashem). This is another
reason why unilateral action cannot be justified. Because unilateral action
does not have the backing of the international community, the attacked nation
feels it is being unfairly dealt with. With such hatred towards the
perpetrator, the nation will likely justify the funding and support for
terrorist organizations, including Hezbollah. Iran currently maintains strong
anti-Semitic values promoted by the government (Weinthal). This will only be
strengthened by unilateral action and will thus bring further harms to international
peace. But multilateral action with
broad international support will make clear to Iranians that they are the ones
endangering peace, putting an end to justifications previously used to support
terrorist groups.
There also exists a clear
difference in the goals of unilateral and multilateral action. Unilateral
action takes into consideration primarily the interests and benefits of one
nation, while the latter is focused on global peace, as mentioned previously.
This means a unilateral actor will think less about regional consequences,
leading to potential side effects that may harm other stakeholders. If the U.S.
attacks North Korea because of its development of nuclear weapons, it has
little to fear because North Korea does not currently have the capability to
directly retaliate against the U.S. But North Korea would certainly believe
South Korea condoned such unilateral action and therefore strike at South
Korea. North Korea’s willingness to do just that has been proven on many occasions,
including attacks on YeonPyeong Island and the Cheonan ship.
The above scenario will likely occur if the U.S. carries out
a unilateral attack against North Korea without the support of countries in the
region. It could furthermore lead to diplomatic problems between the U.S. and
its regional allies and between North Korea and other East Asian nations.
3-1) Introduction—“Regarding the condition of Last
Resort”
“There
was never a good war, or a bad peace.” As the wisdom of Benjamin Franklin
suggests, violent, aggressive action must always be the last resort. In other words, if all peaceful arbitrations have
failed, direct assault is legitimate. The purpose of the ad bellum just war principles is to restrict military action,
unless absolutely necessary (BBC—‘Just War Theory Introduction’). In the status
quo, the only final option is multilateral military action.
The term last resort inherently has two meanings. The first is
self-evidently that all other options have been exhausted. Second the situation
must be so alarmingly urgent such that action can no longer be postponed (IPPF
Topic Primer).
3-2) Depleted Resorts
The most favorable action of resort is
peaceful compromise. This comprises myriad of forms, including negotiations,
peace-talks, and agreement to IAEA inspections. However, it is clear that
peaceful resorts have failed. Iran has either limited the inspection areas of
the IAEA or banned inspections entirely. North Korea declared at the UN Disarmament
forum in Geneva that bowing to any UN resolutions will never happen (Nebehay).
The
second resort is “unilateral action.” But aside from the previous laid out
explanations, there are other reasons why this method is now obsolete. First is
the shift in the global power paradigm. The U.S. is no longer perceived as
all-mighty. The rise of China and revival of Russia have made U.S.-led
unilateral action inherently difficult and dangerous. These nations have direct
or indirect national interests in states like Iran or North Korea, and their
surrounding regions. Second is the socio-economic change within the U.S. Not
only is its national wealth being quickly depleted, but public opinion is
against war.
3-3) The Red Line for Multilateral action
Thereafter,
we must draw a red line for any
multilateral military intervention. In most cases, that line is clear:
attaining an operational nuclear warhead or 90% enriched uranium (Ronen). This
line was set by U.S. President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at
the United Nations two years ago. Iran has enriched uranium to 20% for
legitimate civilian purposes, and is getting closer to that established line
(Nebehay). It has accumulated 190 kilos of concentrated uranium of the 250
kilos needed to manufacture a warhead (World Nuclear Association). The case for
North Korea is different. Because North Korea is mainly targeting the U.S. with
existing nuclear weapons, the red line it must cross in order for multilateral
intervention to be justified includes the miniaturization of nuclear warheads
and ICBM capabilities.
Conclusion
While
a major nuclear incident is by no means a certainty, the menace of nuclear
terrorism looks to become increasingly heightened over the next few decades. Non-proliferation
regimes will then come under greater pressure to also arm themselves. Access to
peaceful nuclear energy programs will end up being curtailed or more stringent
inspections will be introduced for countries operating civilian nuclear power plants.
With
the potential ramifications of nuclear proliferation thoroughly explained in
the first argument, countries that recklessly violate the Nuclear Proliferation
Treaty without room for compromise ought to be punished fair and square.
Critics, who agree to the necessity of military action, argue for alternatives
like unilateral action. But unilateralism is no longer an option. Multilateral
military action as a last resort to minimizing proliferation does not mean
diplomatic efforts should be halted in any way. But when it is completely
justified and satisfying the conditions of a last resort measure, multilateral military
action is the only viable and legitimate final recourse available.
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